When evaluating a CPR scenario, it is essential that scenarios are not forecasts and therefore are not associated with probabilities (3). On the contrary, scenarios are used to present to decision makers the results of as wide a range of plausible decisions as possible, in order to influence their decisions. It makes no sense to characterize a scenario as „misleading“ – which assumes that we know the real future and deliberately predict another scenario. Instead, we should focus on the usefulness of the scenarios. Focusing on results at the end of the century is an insufficient way to assess the usefulness of a certain CPR. Shorter horizons are of great importance for informing social decisions and it is important to have useful scenarios for these horizons. Considering the mid-century and earlier, RCP8.5 is clearly the most useful choice. In addition, the IMPACT assessment on GDP is an incomplete measure for the overall benefits of reducing climate change, since non-monetary losses, such as loss of life and biodiversity, are not eliminated. While adaptation to climate change is not effective, most of these points point to a strong underestimation of the efforts needed to combat climate change. The CO2 content of the atmosphere only serves to replace its radiation power, which is why we are looking more closely at the cause-and-effect links between major climate inflammations and GMTA. The correlation and IF between the main reconstituted radiation forces37 (for identifiers used in 37 see if, Table SI-3) and the GMTA time series are shown in Table 1, correlations and causalities are significant at the 95% level and more than 0.1 nat/ut are in bold.
The significant IF calculated on the entire GMTA radiation obligation (Table 1) essentially corresponds to the results of 28 (Table 2, Model I), with a significant causality between these two variables. The causalities calculated between the different coercive components and GMTA are also largely at odds with the results of the IF (SI, Table SI-2). However, the non-quantitative nature of barn causality makes it difficult to ignore the significant causalities of GMTA to anthropogenic and greenhouse gases, as would be possible with very small inverted information flows.